MECKLENBURG COUNTY, N.C. — As social distancing efforts continue, Mecklenburg County Health officials put out new projections on when we will see our peak in COVID-19 cases. On Tuesday, Atrium Health's CEO made a projection of their own, showing a later peak that's not as bad as originally thought.
It's the big question we've been following for nearly two months: when will Mecklenburg County hit its peak in coronavirus cases?
"What we have seen is a significant flattening of our curve," said Mecklenburg County Health Director Gibbie Harris as she spoke to the board of county commissioners at a meeting back on May 5.
On Tuesday, Atrium Health CEO Gene Woods said the county would hit its peak on July 24.
"But it will be significantly less than originally anticipated," he said in a conference call on a hospital board meeting.
The new projection is 10 days later that the latest county projection presented May 5, when their peak estimate was July 14.
According to that week-old projection, Mecklenburg county hospitals would have needed more ICU beds and ventilators in June due to an influx of cases that would have surpassed their current capacity.
That is no longer the case.
Woods said our hospital system will not be stressed to the max like they initially thought.
"Current forecast using our actual patient data no longer predicts a spike that will exceed our hospital bed, ICU, ventilator, or PPE capacity," said Woods.
However, he warned that the projection could change for the worse if the community doesn't continue social distancing and taking health precautions.
"We're looking at how that may affect the models," said Woods.
But no matter the level of stress that hospitals, now, aren't projected to quite see, it's clear our hospitals have already been tested.
"We don't believe that we will go back to the way things were before COVID-19," Woods concluded.
WCNC Charlotte reached out to Mecklenburg County health officials late Tuesday to see if Atrium's new projection would change the county's projections.
As of Tuesday night, we had not heard back.
The Mecklenburg County Health Department uses local hospital data and the University of Pennsylvania model to create their projections.
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