CHARLOTTE, N.C. — An institute creating projections used by the White House coronavirus task force is estimating North Carolina and South Carolina would see thousands of COVID-19 deaths before the end of the outbreak.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation(IHME), an institute that is part of the University of Washington, entered the headlines Tuesday when Dr. Deborah Birx said 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in the U.S. from the coronavirus pandemic are possible if social distancing is maintained. Her statement was backed up by data and projections from the institute.
IHME has its forecast published on its website. The projections are broken down by state and include estimated hospital and ICU beds needed, deaths per day and total deaths.
The estimates for North Carolina say the state will hit the peak of its 'curve' for deaths per day on April 27. At that time, IHME estimates there will be 51 deaths per day from COVID-19.
Although the projections say North Carolina will have enough hospital beds available, the state will need to gain about another 200 ICU beds at the peak of the curve. In total, IHME estimates a total of 1,534 people will die from the virus in North Carolina. That's slightly down from the projection of 1,597 on April 1.
The final death in the state, according to the projections, would be in early June.
The peak date for hospital demand in North Carolina also will be April 27, according to IHME.
Those numbers have a caveat, however. The conclusion of the forecast says the numbers are "predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic." Both North Carolina and South Carolina have implemented social distancing measures with the shutting down of all non-essential businesses.
South Carolina will need the most hospital resources on April 28, almost four weeks from now. According to the estimates, the state would be short about 60 ICU beds and need about 376 ventilators.
The projections say the highest number of deaths per day will also occur on April 28, when 31 people die from the virus in a single day.
In total, IHME estimates 1,095 people will die in South Carolina, which is up from the April 1 projection of 1,060. The state's final death will occur in early June, according to the projection.