MECKLENBURG COUNTY, N.C. — A new COVID-19 projection shows a peak in cases in Mecklenburg County won't hit until June 27, according to data released by county health officials.
The models show the curve of cases flattening over time, since March. Cases are still rising, but at a slower pace than once before, according to the data released on Monday.
"We are successfully, effectively flattening the curve in our community," said Dr. Raynard Washington.
Assuming 45% of the community practices social distancing, Mecklenburg County's hospitals will need the most beds by June 27. Currently, there are 2,579 licensed hospital beds in the county, according to the Mecklenburg County Health Department.
That would give the hospitals enough capacity to treat the number of expected hospitalizations on June 27, which is 2,060, according to the models.
However, the county would still be short on ventilators and ICU beds that would be needed by that time.
There are 283 critical care beds in Mecklenburg County, according to health officials. The new model shows 1,143 ICU beds would be needed by the June 27 peak -- a shortage of 860 ICU beds.
Currently, there are 243 ventilators in Mecklenburg County hospitals, according to data from the county health department.
By June 27, 515 ventilators would be needed, per the new model. Local hospitals would be short by 272 ventilators.
The models are put together by the Mecklenburg County Health Department, using data from the University of Pennsylvania's COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics (CHIME), along with Atrium and Novant Hospitals.
Healthcare workers in the county are still finding it hard to get an adequate amount of personal protective equipment, or PPE, to conduct COVID-19 tests, according to Harris.
She also added there have been challenges in trying to increase testing through the county, with limitations on obtaining the right supplies for them.
Contact tracing, where health officials track who the virus has been passed onto from a patient, is also difficult. Harris said all three things need to be enhanced before she can ease restrictions on the local stay at home order.
"At this point in time, in this county, we do not have that," she said. "At this point in time, it's hard to say that we would completely open back up on the 29th of April without that happening (when the stay at home order expires)."
If county officials decide to ease restrictions, Harris expects an increase in cases.
"The likelihood is that we'll see more cases. What is going to be very uncomfortable for our community is if we relax a lot, and then have to clamp down again because our numbers go way up," Harris said.
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