CHARLOTTE, N.C. — As COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations continue to rise in North Carolina, the worst could be yet to come in Mecklenburg County, the health director told county leaders Tuesday night.
In her coronavirus update for Mecklenburg County commissioners, Gibbie Harris detailed how some national projections that use county data are modeling a new peak for infections later this month.
"In some of these models, we might peak around late December, just before Christmas," Harris told commissioners.
The update comes as county hospitalizations set new records and cases are rising. According to Harris, Mecklenburg is averaging 356 new infections each day, with a positive test rate just under 9%.
County data released Tuesday shows coronavirus-related hospitalizations set a new record Sunday, with 242 patients. Harris noted, however, hospitals have not had to back off elective procedures yet, which means there is still some room to surge.
"They're still feeling like they can manage," Harris said.
However, it might not be too long before the situation becomes more dire. Looking at metrics like positive test rate and per capita cases, Harris thinks the county's current "yellow-zone" standing on North Carolina's county alert system could soon be upgraded, showing Mecklenburg as more of a virus hotspot.
"I would not be surprised if, the next time they issued that report... we are not at least in orange, if not in the red," Harris said.
According to the system, yellow indicates a "significant" spread of the coronavirus, while orange means "substantial" and red stands for "critical" spread.
However, one concern Harris mentioned multiple times is that the models the county is watching could be missing a key factor.
"They do not account for a surge that we might see from Thanksgiving," Harris told commissioners.
"So, what you're saying is what we could be seeing could be understated, not overstated," said Commissioner Susan B. Harden.
"Exactly," Harris replied.
In other concerns, Harris noted the CARES Act has been helping expand the county's testing efforts. That aid expires at the end of December, but the need does not, Harris said.