CHARLOTTE, N.C. — In 2023, consumers should expect slow economic growth in the face of inflation.
"I think by this time next year, we'll probably be looking at a 3-4% rate of inflation. And during early '24, the Fed should be able to, if they keep at it and stick to their guns, they should be able to get it back down into the 2% range in 2024", John Connaughton, said.
Connaughton, an economics professor at UNC Charlotte's Belk College of Business, is also the director of the North Carolina Economic Forecast. He warned economic progress won't be quick.
"It's going to play out, as I say, very, very slowly over the year, and we probably won't know very much about how the year went until about this time next year," he said.
Connaughton thinks a recession is a possibility, but remains optimistic, assuming the Fed continues to slowly draw down inflation.
"A one-third chance that we will slip into a recession in '23, about two-thirds that will just have a very, very slow growth year," he predicted.
Despite interest rate hikes, the Charlotte housing market will remain hot because of low inventory, he suggested.
"That's going to keep pressure on prices for single-family homes and also for rental units as well," Connaughton said.
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