DURHAM, N.C. — One week ahead of Election Day, candidates are looking to some of the last polls and predictions for insight. Despite a lot of variables emphasizing North Carolina's battleground state status, they all show similar results: a dead heat.
A WRAL News poll released Tuesday shows both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump tied with 47% of the vote among likely voters. It also shows 4% are undecided, and 2% are likely to go for a third-party candidate.
Duke University experts held a virtual panel, addressing this poll and the influence those third-party votes could have.
"At the margins, a third-party candidate could matter just as voting rules impacting young people, could matter just as Hurricane Helene and its impact, could matter just as Mark Robinson and his impact could matter," said Duke University professor Asher Hildebrand. "There are a lot of issues like this that could matter at the margins that could add up to be decisive, and I would certainly put the small but potentially significant number of votes that a third-party candidate secures in North Carolina on that list."
Those potential impacts of Helene on voting are revealed in another new poll from Elon University.
The survey, also released Tuesday, says 59% of the state's registered voters said "they, their families or their close friends and neighbors have been affected by the damage of Hurricane Helene, with 21% saying they have experienced a lot of impact."
Of those surveyed, 20% said they are more likely to vote because of Helene. Only 2% said they are less likely to vote.
While this shows it hasn't hurt voters' intentions, actually getting to the polls might be more difficult.
"The question that many people had wondered is: 'will the hurricane hurt Democrats or hurt Republicans?'" said Duke University professor Sunshine Hillygus. "So those who were in the hard-hit areas of Asheville that may have relocated to Durham or Charlotte because they need to get their kids in school -- are they figuring out what they need to do in order to cast a ballot?"
The State Board of Elections announced Tuesday that more than 3.1 million ballots had been cast. This is slightly behind 2020, which was at around 3.4 million ballots by this point. However, experts emphasize it's hard to compare these years, given the amount of mail-in ballots due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Both are far ahead of 2016's 1.8 million ballots cast by this point.
Contact Julie Kay at juliekay@wcnc.com and follow her on Facebook, X and Instagram.