CHARLOTTE, N.C. — In Charlotte, we have this conversation this time every year: Will the Queen City ever get a Major League Baseball team?
Entering the 2024 season, there are a few new wrinkles to that discussion.
1. Most reporting now says expansion could happen by the early 2030s, giving us somewhat of a timeline.
2. Carolina Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon expressed interest in exploring bringing a MLB team to North Carolina in an interview last fall.
Cities vying for expansion clubs could include Charlotte, Raleigh, Nashville, Orlando, Portland, San Jose, Salt Lake City, Austin, San Antonio, Montreal and Mexico City.
Dundon was the first person with money, power and influence to float bringing a team to North Carolina, though. An expansion fee for a team, especially by 2030, is likely to be in the billions.
“My question about Tom Dundon is not willingness," Erik Spanberg of the Charlotte Business Journal said. "It's how much money does he have? We’re talking (an expansion fee) of probably $2 billion by the time you get to 2029, 2030. It's probably $2.5 billion the way these things go up.”
Even without Dundon, Charlotte should have a strong case to land a team, according to Spanberg.
"The inevitability of cities as sports markets becomes a big part of the discussion," he said. "Tournaments, championships, all-star games, they didn't use to come here. Now they come here on a much more regular basis.”
SCOUTING THE COMPETITION
We wanted to, borrowing a baseball term, run some advanced scouting on the competition ahead of possible expansion. So we took the aforementioned list of cities and pared it down to cities on or near the East Coast.
MLB would likely add two teams to make an even 32, so good luck Portland. We're more concerned with Nashville.
Here's who we think we could be up against:
- Raleigh
- Nashville
- Austin
- Montreal
And here's what we think some of the top criteria to land a franchise might be:
- TV market size
- Population
- Corporate presence
Eno Sarris, a senior MLB writer for The Athletic, has been digging into some of the numbers surrounding potential expansion cities, and thinks Charlotte has a great chance.
"Charlotte hit the top of the list really on so many of the different things I looked at," he said.
In terms of TV market, Charlotte leads the cities we seem to be competing with, per Nielsen.
- Charlotte: #21
- Raleigh: #22
- Nashville: #26
- Montreal: N/A
- Austin: #35
“TV markets I think might actually be the most important thing," Sarris said. "The the owners want more TV market, more TV share.”
And a team is going to need to fill corporate suites, right? Simply put, Charlotte crushes the competition when it comes to how many Fortune 500 companies reside in the city, according to Fortune.com
- Charlotte: 13 Fortune 500 companies
- Raleigh: 4
- Nashville: 4
- Montreal: 1
- Austin: 5
“In fact, when it comes to industry, it would be on par with Miami, St. Louis, Washington, DC, and not too far off from Los Angeles," Sarris said. "So it has the surrounding industry. And that matters for luxury boxes, signage and corporate partners.”
Among those same cities, Charlotte's metro population is strong. And it's a young, growing population.
- Charlotte: 2.8 million
- Raleigh: 1.5 million (add in another 600,000 or so if you add in Durham-Chapel Hill)
- Nashville: 2.1 million
- Montreal: 4.3 million
- Austin: 2.4 million
Sarris said it's not so much the number of people, but where the people are.
"What you're looking for as a team is density," he said. "And that's missing a little bit more on the Raleigh side. Charlotte has more population density. You can put a stadium somewhere where you really feel within 30 minutes, you've got X amount of people (to attend a game).”
STADIUM LOCATION
Of course, Charlotte's team would need an owner, and the team would need a stadium. A major investor/candidate for owner and stadium deal could push one market ahead of another.
Where would a stadium in Charlotte go?
"Entertainment and sports are more important to downtowns, not just this one, but all downtowns," Spanberg said. "So I think that makes it even clearer that a Major League Baseball stadium would go downtown. Which specific site I'm not sure, but you can go around Uptown and find parking lots, old buildings, places where you could build a ballpark if the will is there and Major League Baseball wants to come here."
And filling it?
Charlotte Knights (Triple-A) attendance is often among the best in Minor League Baseball. But this would be, literally, a different league.
Spanberg thinks a North Carolina team would draw.
"If you watch a lot of Major League Baseball during the week, there just aren't a lot of people there," he said. "They're making their money on the weekend. So I think that would be the case here. But could it be done? Absolutely. If Milwaukee, Kansas City, Cleveland, Cincinnati, those are all similar sized markets, they have all done fine with Major League Baseball. I don't know why Charlotte or Raleigh couldn't do it."
Contact Nick Carboni at ncarboni@wcnc.com and follow him on Facebook, X and Instagram.