CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Harrison Burton's upset win in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona crashed the playoff picture heading into the final race of the NASCAR Cup Series regular season.
Burton jumped from 34th to 16th on the playoff grid with the win. It was a monumental moment for Burton and his Wood Brothers team that will eliminate another driver's chance to race for a title in 2024.
There are 13 drivers locked into the playoffs with at least one win this season. Three more drivers will make it to the playoffs through the points standings or by winning at Darlington on Sunday.
The 13 drivers already in are Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Alex Bowman, Joey Logano, Daniel Suárez, Austin Cindric, and Burton.
Martin Truex Jr.
Martin Truex Jr. is ninth in the regular season standings and 14th heading into the final race before the playoffs. Truex holds a 58-point advantage above 17th place, making him all but assured of qualifying for the playoffs in his final full-time season. Truex would need an absolutely dismal set of circumstances to miss the cut.
Two drivers below Truex have some breathing room but will still need to avoid major mistakes.
Ty Gibbs
Ty Gibbs, still searching for his first Cup Series victory, has put together a solid sophomore season and threatened to win multiple races this year.
Gibbs is 39 points above the cutline but is just 18 points above the 16th place spot, which could be replaced if another surprise winner visits victory lane on Sunday. Gibbs finished second at Darlington in May.
Chris Buescher
Chris Buescher's 2024 season has seen him finish second in the closest finish in NASCAR Cup Series history and fall short in a late race battle at Darlington. Buescher sits in another dramatic spot as the last driver on the playoff grid heading into Darlington. He is 21 points ahead of Bubba Wallace.
Buescher closed the 2023 regular season with three wins in the last five races. He's yet to find that success in 2024 but is eager to return to victory lane at an opportune time.
Bubba Wallace
Wallace has shuffled in and out of a playoff spot in the last several weeks. He would be six points to the good if Burton had not won at Daytona but now finds himself needing a great run to make the playoffs. With a sixth-place finish at Daytona, Wallace has four top 10s in the last five races as he's been one of the most consistent drivers in the field.
Wallace finished seventh at Darlington in May. He'll need to score some stage points and either win or have Buescher run into trouble to make it.
Ross Chastain
A surprising run of poor finishes for Ross Chastain has seen the Trackhouse Racing driver fall 27 points behind the final playoff spot. Chastain was ninth in the points standings after New Hampshire but six finishes outside the top 10 in the last seven races have severely hurt his chances.
Chastain is in a similar situation to Wallace and will likely need to win or have some help to get a spot in the playoffs.
Chastain finished 11th at Darlington in May.
Must-win situations
There are 16 other drivers who have an opportunity to make the playoffs. These drivers can not mathematically make it on points but will qualify if they win at Darlington on Sunday.
Kyle Busch is the most notable name among these drivers. The two-time series champion has yet to find victory lane this season and has more DNFs (five) than top fives (four). Busch narrowly missed a playoff spot with a second-place finish to Burton at Daytona.
Busch is also in danger of failing to win a race in a season for the first time in his career. Busch has won in a record-setting 19 straight seasons going back to his rookie year of 2005.
Chase Briscoe is just behind Busch in the standings and is looking to make the postseason in the final year for Stewart-Haas Racing. Briscoe is set to replace Truex at Joe Gibbs Racing in 2025, and a Darlington win and playoff spot would be a great way to enter that new role.
Todd Gilliland has run a relatively decent season and sits 20th in the points standings. Gilliland will make his 98th Cup Series start at Darlington. Burton, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, and William Byron all won their first race in their 98th start -- Could Gilliland do the same thing?
Other drivers who could win their way in include Josh Berry, Michael McDowell, Erik Jones, and Carson Hocevar.
Regular season title
On the other side of the playoff grid are drivers making a case that they will be racing for a championship in the season's final race at Phoenix in November. Three drivers are mathematically capable of winning the regular season title and securing 15 playoff points for each round of the tournament.
Tyler Reddick
The driver of the No. 45 Toyota Camry for 23XI is leading the points standings heading into the final regular season race. Reddick holds a 17-point lead over Kyle Larson. With a series-leading 11 top fives and 17 top 10s, Reddick's consistency has far and away pushed him to the top. He also has two wins this year (Talladega and Michigan).
Kyle Larson
Larson's inability to race in Charlotte's Coca-Cola 600 because of his Indianapolis 500 run could cost him the regular season title. Larson sits 17 points behind Reddick with one fewer start than his fellow competitors. Larson's four wins this season lead the series but he's held back by four DNFs and a number of wrecks that have hurt his chances at consistent runs.
The 223 stage points Larson has earned this year also lead the series. Larson's chances at a regular season title may come down to scoring some timely stage points early in the race on Sunday.
Chase Elliott
With just one win this year, Chase Elliott has mostly flown under the radar. NASCAR's most popular driver is 18 points behind Reddick. Elliott's quiet consistency had him leading the points standings for two races earlier this year.
Elliott ended a 42-race winless streak by winning at Texas in April. He's been near the front most of the year but could be poised for a late-season run if he wins the regular-season title.
One more week
The Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington is the final race of the NASCAR regular season. The race is on Sunday, Sept. 1 at 6 p.m. The NASCAR playoffs begin with the Round of 16 with the Quaker State 400 at Atlanta on Sept. 8.