CHARLOTTE, N.C. â If you're dreaming of a white Christmas in Charlotte, you might want to keep dreaming.
WCNC Weather Impact Chief Meteorologist Brad Panovich addressed recent social media buzz about potential snowfall on Christmas. In a detailed explanation of WCNC Charlotte's Weather IQ YouTube channel, Panovich urged caution against premature excitement and emphasized the importance of checking for trusted, reliable weather forecasts.
Long-range snowfall forecasts are often overhyped with a less than 1% chance of snow on Christmas most years. It's extremely rare in Charlotte, with the Queen City getting snow on Christmas just four times in the past 146 years. Our most recent Christmas snow was in 2010, and even then it was 0.4 inches. Crunching the numbers, measurable snowfall happens on average every 36 years in Charlotte.
"It's a generational thing," Panovich said. "It doesn't happen very often. Our snows typically happen in January, February and early March."
So yeah, things aren't looking great. But it's not impossible.
Why there's hype about snow on Christmas
Panovich received several messages about a long-range snowfall forecast. Dozens of people shared this forecast with Panovich, asking him if it's true. The fact of the matter is we don't know because it's still too soon.
"It's not that there's a 0% chance of snow on Christmas," Panovich said. "There's always some chance of snow in Charlotte. I mean, people will post these long-range forecasts and go, 'Well, it could happen.' Yeah, sure, it also could snow 15 years from now on Christmas. The percentages are the same. We're 12 days out."
According to Panovich, the GFS model showed an overnight run with a chance of snow in Charlotte on Christmas. Panovich urged anyone using this as their forecast should use caution because it's just one predictor. It's not all of the available data, not to mention long-range forecasting is a lot more difficult than short-term modeling.
Panovich also explained that many people don't share the full run of forecast models because they aren't sensational. For example, there are 31 versions of the GFS, known as an ensemble.
"If you look at the latest ensembles, there are a couple of these that shows more kind of snow next weekend out of 31," Panovich said. "So three out of 31. That's it. There's a couple more that try to show some more snow Christmas week but it's only one or two, folks."
The truth about the Christmas snow hype
Panovich said there's a good chance of having cold air in the Carolinas on Christmas. That's a key ingredient, but an area of high pressure could be parked over the region, preventing any storms from hitting.
"There's just nothing there," Panovich said of moisture. "So we have one ingredient. It is going to be cold for Christmas week, but right now there's no storm to bring us anything for Christmas."
Panovich said for him to even consider talking about snow in the Carolinas, he's looking for trends and patterns. It would take around 30% of those models to have something to get his attention.
"I would want to see one-third of these with some snow next week to even get slightly interested," he said. "Overall if you look at the chance of one inch of snow from the European model, it's less than 10% for everywhere east of the mountains. So basically, a big nothing."
Charlotte Christmas forecast ... still too early
Panovich says right now we're looking at a cold Christmas week but an exact forecast is still too far away to have much trust in it. The long-range models are in agreement there's a small chance of precipitation, which could be snow, but again, we're looking at less than 10%, and that's being kind to the snow lovers.
"There's no need to get super specific and say there's a chance 12 days out," Panovich said. "Honestly, it'd be great if it snowed on Christmas, but it's not something that happens here very often at all."