CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Who wouldn't want some snow on Christmas? Especially in 2020?
Sure, it would be nice, but the reality of the situation is the deck is stacked against it right now. Historically, the chances aren't even good, with a less than 3% chance to see snow on Christmas in a given year.
In fact, it's only happened four times in 142 years of record-keeping in Charlotte. The most recent white Christmas in the Queen City was 2010, and it was amazing.
False news travels fast
Like many things on social media, misinformation travels faster than the truth. When one model out of thousands over the next six days shows the slightest hint of snow, people tend to run with it, even when 95% of the data shows no snow.
So what's actually going on?
There is a strong cold front on the way to the Carolinas next week. It will arrive sometime between Wednesday late in the day and early Christmas day. Ahead of that front, it's pretty warm with highs near 60 degrees.
Behind the front, some really cold air will move in, but it's dry. When we do get snow around here, it's rarely, if ever, with the actual cold front that brings the cold air. It's typically with the next system that moves in once the cold air's already in place.
The kind of setup next week is one where the cold air is chasing the moisture, meaning the cold air is moving in after the moisture's gone. And it's hard to have snow without moisture.
So the highest chances of seeing any snow for Christmas morning are in the mountains and areas north and west of Tennessee and West Virginia.