CHARLOTTE, N.C. — A changing weather pattern and a warming planet are leading researchers to predict a very active hurricane season this year.
Researchers at North Carolina State University predict a higher-than-usual 2024 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, according to a forecast outlook released by the school this week.
Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at NC State, categorizes the forecast as "significantly higher than the longer-term average, and moderately higher than recent 30-year averages," according to the announce from NC State.
Xie predicts 15-to-20 named storms in the Atlantic basin, which includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. He predicts ten-to-12 of those storms to grow strong enough to become hurricanes, which must have winds of at least 74 mph to reach category 1 status. Of those, three-to-four of the storms could become a major hurricane, which is classified as a category 3 storm with winds of at least 111 mph.
The long-term average, which dates back to 1951, sees an average of 11 named storms. In the past 30 years, that average has climbed to 14 named storms thanks in part to warming ocean temperatures.
A storm is considered named when it becomes a tropical storm with winds of at least 39 mph.
If Xie's prediction of up to 12 hurricanes becomes true, that would be twice the historical average, according to NC State.
NC State is among the schools that release an annual hurricane forecast each season. Colorado State University, also well-known for its tropical prediction, released a similar outlook earlier this month. That school's research predicts 14 named storms, with seven becoming hurricanes and three becoming major hurricanes.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also releases an annual outlook. In recent years, that official government outlook was publish in late May.
Earlier this year, NOAA issued a La Niña watch predicting a change in the global weather pattern. During an active El Niño pattern, wind shear is often reduced. A reduction in wind sheer, combined with the warm ocean surface temperatures, allow more tropical systems to form in the Atlantic basin.
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