CHARLOTTE, N.C. — This Fall has been great, and I am not trying to jump into Winter but as Meteorologists, we are always looking ahead. La Nina is now fully active and it has already affected our hurricane season and is going to affect this winter.
We are now officially in a La Niña pattern which is the cold-water phase of the Enso cycle or El Nino Southern Oscillation. Which is a key element to seasonal forecasting.
La Niña has already aided the 2nd most active hurricane season due to the reduction of wind shear which breaks up storms. This season is one Zeta named storm from tying the infamous 2005 season for the most named storms on record.
Here’s how La Niña works:
During La Nina, the Ocean temperatures here in the Pacific Ocean cool. This has a ripple effect on our global circulations that affects us here in the United States.
The Jetstream causes frequent lower pressure (stormier weather) in the Pacific northwest while it allows for higher pressure in the southeast (drier weather).
This also means colder outbreaks over the Northern US while keeping it warmer here closer to home.
La Niña also has a proven past of low snow totals in Charlotte's history.
Three out of the last 8 Charlotte La Nina time frames only saw a trace of snow. And 7 out of 8 had below-normal snowfall. Where the average amount of snow Charlotte sees every year is 4.3”.
Now the forecast: Right now we are trending towards an above-average warmer winter here in the Southeast with the occasional cold spell. As for the precip… we should be drier than normal here but the snow season could start earlier and be more aggressive in the Mid-west and the northern states.
As of the most recent update. There is over a 75% chance La Nina will hold this winter which historically means an overall milder winter here in the Carolinas.