CHARLOTTE, N.C. — It seems like every winter on social media people will share long-range deterministic snowfall maps with no context.
Most time these are shared by non-trusted sources, but because people love snow, they share away even though there is a high likelihood it's never going to happen.
I make no bones about it -- I like snow and love getting a few good storms every winter. I've loved snow since my very first memory of the weather as a 7-year-old kid growing up in northeast Ohio.
As much as I love snow, I learned as a professional meteorologist I love being accurate more. So I use clear forecasting rules for forecasting winter weather so I get the forecast right -- not get to a forecast I wish could come true even though I know it's unlikely.
The Rules:
It's pretty straightforward: When I start to see a favorable pattern for wintry weather in the Southeast in the 7-10 day range, I'll start talking about it. Usually in my vlogs and on the 10-day forecast.
So if you are seeing detailed maps for more than 7 days out -- let alone 12-14 days out -- you just know it's clickbait. Detailed maps are the last step in the 1-3 day range.
When we get to 5-7 days out, it's about if the trend is going up or down for wintry weather. Then 3-5 days out we get a good idea of what type of storm, ice, snow, or sleet. Sometimes it's all of them but we start to see a pattern of snow versus ice. Then on days 1-3, you can post a detailed map of totals and timing.
The reason these rules are so valuable is they give you plenty of time to prepare but also rely on real-time information that we can know in advance.
Forecasting has come a long way and we see these set-ups pretty far out, but for exact details for something as hard to get as snow around here you just don't have much skill at long range with the finer details.
It's like knowing we might see a tropical system 7-10 days from now, but knowing the exact landfall location is just not something you know that far out.
Trust me -- if there is a legitimate chance in the time frame, you know I'll be vlogging about it and keeping you weather aware.
Contact Brad Panovich at bpanovich@wcnc.com or follow him on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.
