CHARLOTTE, N.C. — As additional restrictions to slow the spread of COVID-19 in North Carolina loom at the end of the week, some continue to question why health officials believe such a long-lasting lockdown is necessary.
A frequent argument against the coronavirus restrictions points to the concept of herd immunity and the fact that it could naturally develop if the virus runs its course through the community.
According to the Mayo Clinic, herd immunity is when an entire community is protected against a disease because a large-enough portion develops immunity to that disease, either through vaccination or infection.
Without an approved vaccine in the U.S. yet, the only option left is through infection -- essentially, letting the virus move through the community.
"In theory, it works. In practice, it would be untenable," said Dr. Cameron Wolfe, an infectious disease expert with Duke University's School of Medicine.
"We would absolutely be ravaged in terms of the numbers of infections," Wolfe said.
Wolfe explains that, even for those who would suffer only milder symptoms and survive, the effects could still be crippling in other ways -- potentially working against the goals of trying to restart the economy and getting back to life as everyone knows it.
"The hospitals would be unable to cope with that surge," Wolfe said. "You would see businesses unable to stay open because, frankly, you would have too many people affected."
While it has been nearly 11 months since the first-known case of COVID-19 arrived in the U.S., Wolfe states that immunity levels are likely only around 20 percent. It is believed that 70% is the goal for herd immunity from the coronavirus.
With the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reporting close to 300,000 deaths so far, Wolfe believes the ultimate death toll while waiting for the country to hit the herd immunity threshold would be devastating.
"We'd be looking at 1 million deaths," said Wolfe. "That is a horrific number to contemplate, and I would take great angst at anyone who thinks that's an acceptable outcome."
Earlier this year, the World Health Organization took a similar stance.
"Never in the history of public health has herd immunity been used as a strategy for responding to an outbreak, let alone, a pandemic," said Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the WHO. "It's scientifically and ethically problematic."
Many health experts see a COVID-19 vaccine as a more ethical and ideal method to reach herd immunity.
As the Mayo Clinic writes, "vaccines create immunity without causing illness or resulting complications."