CHARLOTTE, N.C. — The following is WCNC Charlotte Chief Meteorologist Brad Panovich's winter outlook for December 2023 through February 2024.
Last winter was the first snowless winter in Charlotte’s history since records began in 1878. Every other year had seen at least a trace of snowfall.
The 2022-2023 snowless winter can be attributed primarily to three years of the La Niña pattern, which produces cooler-than-normal water in the Pacific Ocean near the equator. This setup normally brings dry and warm weather in the winter with last year being especially warm. December 2022 through February 2023's average was 4.3 degrees warmer than usual in Charlotte.
This winter, something completely opposite to last winter is happening. El Niño has developed.
The El Niño pattern is the opposite of La Niña. It brings warm waters to the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This El Niño is already strong and could be even stronger during the winter months.
Winter highlights
This setup normally means a wetter and cooler winter for the Southeast. The phase of El Niño or La Niña plays a huge role in my winter forecast. So before we dive into the details of what I’m forecasting, let's look at the highlights:
Temperatures
About average temperatures
Temperatures this winter will be at, or slightly below, normal with several spills of cold, rainy days. For comparison, a typical winter in Charlotte has an average high temperature of 54.6 degrees and a low of 33.7 degrees.
Precipitation
Above average precipitation
This winter should be wetter than normal. Don't be fooled. We're going to see several spells of cold rain in addition to snow and ice chances.
Snow and ice
A few storms this winter
Even with near-normal temperatures, we should have a few bigger storms because of El Niño's active storm track. This pacing is near, or slightly above, the usual norm. The western North Carolina mountains have the best chance for a snowier winter, while chances in Charlotte and the Piedmont may be hit-or-miss.
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El Niño
El Niño is such a huge driving force for our winter pattern. We see a direct correlation between our winter weather and the active phase of ENSO (El Niño South Oscillation): El Niño, La Niña, or a natural phase.
El Niño is really known for its active storm track comparatively further south than with El Niño. This shift brings frequent storms from the Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. In the past, this correlated with higher snow chances.
Lack of cold air
When forecasting our snow chances, my concern is not with the precipitation because of my confidence in El Niño's storm track. It’s the lack of cold air that’s the issue.
It’s important to remember: Rain and temperatures in the low-to-mid 40s would make for a cold and wet winter. It would produce plenty of cold rain but not snowy weather.
For snow, we need really cold air. In today's current climate, that's hard to come on a consistent basis.
There is a limit on the size of the Arctic air mass this season. That can be observed through the lack of early snowfall in Siberia - combined with the size of the Arctic sea ice, which means near historic lows. In this environment, the arctic blasts we get are brief and short-lived.
To get a good snowfall, precipitation will need to sync up with one of those quick bursts.
It'll all come down to timing. Since Charlotte's average snowfall has decreased to just 3.5 inches, it could all come down to one, ideally-timed storm.
Other factors
There are always some wild cards each winter.
For example, last year, we had one good arctic blast around Christmas with the coldest air in years. Then, it was gone. January and February both saw record warmth. There are always smaller scale and shorter term events that can create extremes. These types of events aren't foreseen in three-month outlooks.
Other factors at play include the Polar Vortex, which, if it weakens and shifts, could push surges of cold air south. Another factor could be a blocking pattern in the Atlantic or the Pacific oceans.
If the storm track becomes overactive, as we saw last year with the atmospheric river on the West Coast, we could see persistent storms.
Conclusion and predictions
Seasonal forecasting is really a general forecast and is often verified between 65% and 70% of the time. Overall, the three-month span from December through February in Charlotte looks to have at, or slightly below, average temperatures with at, or slightly above, average precipitation.
I do like, just for fun, to make some bold predictions for a few cities. Like picking the final score of the Super Bowl, it's near impossible to know for sure, but it’s still fun to give it a shot:
- For Boone: I’m going 44 inches, which will be above average
- Hickory: 7 inches, which will be above average as well
- Charlotte: 4 inches, which will be slightly above average
Brad's live Q&A
Have a question for Brad Panovich about how much snow we could expect to see this winter season? Panovich will be answering these questions during a live stream Q&A on WCNC Charlotte's Weather IQ YouTube channel on Thursday at 3:15 p.m.
Contact Brad Panovich at bpanovich@wcnc.com or follow him on Facebook, X and Instagram.
WCNC Charlotte’s Weather IQ YouTube channel gives detailed explainers from the WCNC Charlotte meteorologists to help you learn and understand weather, climate and science. Watch previous stories where you can raise your Weather IQ in the YouTube playlist below and subscribe to get updated when new videos are uploaded.